Will Apple drop sales of older iPhones to boost newer models?

Apple’s recent iPhone sales may be something of a surprise to people following the happenings in the smartphone industry. The company claimed about 18% of the global smartphone market in the third quarter, according to new Canalys data, falling only a little short of Samsung. That’s impressive, and not just because Samsung sells to a broader audience — a post from analyst Ming-Chi Kuo suggests that during their first weekend, iPhone 16 presales were down 12% versus those for the iPhone 15 a year ago. Other analysts have made similar claims about the 16’s launch.

The story of the iPhone in the last few years has been one of diminishing excitement. The product’s hardly about to tank, clearly — but many people are no longer in a rush to upgrade every year or two. They’re holding on to devices for three years or more, and may not even buy a new model when they do upgrade. Canalys hints that a decent chunk of Apple’s Q3 sales may have come from the older phones the company keeps around to appease budget-minded buyers.

All this makes me wonder if Apple might eventually kill off sales of older iPhones. It’s unlikely, but there are advantages that might tempt Tim Cook and other people in the C-suite.

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You’re probably familiar with the concept of choice paralysis, especially when it comes to tech shopping. The best (slash worst) example might involve Windows PCs. There are so many on the market, frequently with identical specs, that it can be impossible to pick a single option with confidence.

Eliminating older iPhones would echo the early days of the iPhone, and restore Steve Jobs’ philosophy of a simple lineup. Until 2013’s iPhone 5s and 5c, the company typically only sold one iPhone at a time — your choices were to buy the new iPhone, wait for the next one, or scrounge around for third-party deals on last year’s model. That made everything straightforward, and may have even roped in a few customers who in present times would choose to save cash through reduced specs.

A corollary of this is that Apple would be able to direct all its marketing and shelf space to the newest hardware, instead of having to justify the existence of two- or three-year-old products. Visiting an Apple Store, it’s remarkable how much room is devoted to products Apple would rather you skip.

Don’t get me wrong — personally, I’m all in favor of affordable options. But from a business perspective, there’s an argument to be made for narrowing down choices.

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The weight of the past

Manufacturing and support issues

It’s so easy to gloss over how older iPhones burden the company’s manufacturing, supply, and shipping chains. Apple isn’t just relying on unsold inventory — contractors are still manufacturing the products somewhere, and Apple could conceivably repurpose those factories for newer devices. By extension, Apple also has to secure and pay for older parts, as well as line up overseas delivery.

The company obviously seems to think the sales are worth it, but dropping old hardware would free up resources and make the business more nimble. Assuming, at least, that it could get manufacturing standards up to what it’s used to — Apple has occasionally struggled with new factories outside of China, and the heart of iPhone production remains with Foxconn on the Chinese mainland.

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Then, there’s the matter of customer support. If you’re still selling an old phone, you have to support it at the same level as newer products. An ugly truth is that it would benefit Apple financially and logistically to cut off support faster.

Why Apple will probably keep old iPhones around

The myth of the premium market

For a long time now, Apple’s main target has been the “premium” market, by which it really means expensive products for people with a lot of disposable income. There’s no practical reason for the iPhone 16 Pro to use a titanium shell — thick plastic would be just as tough in most circumstances — but you can upcharge for it.

There’s only so far you can push a premium strategy in the real world. Many middle-class Americans can’t afford a new iPhone, let alone in countries with less income per capita. Apple is aware of this, and keeping older iPhones on sale is one way of attracting cost-conscious buyers without making them stoop to an iPhone SE, which isn’t updated very frequently and comes loaded with compromises.

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Apple could, of course, choose to update the SE every year like other iPhones, but there might not be enough of a gap to upsell people. The iPhone SE 4 will probably have the same A18 chip as the iPhone 16, and there’d be even less of a reason to buy a 16 if you could count on getting the A19 in an SE 5 a year later.

The company’s long-term strategy for reviving sales seems to be a mix of Apple Intelligence and laying the groundwork for foldable and ultra-slim models. I doubt that Apple Intelligence will make much of a dent — but those premium customers will probably get up and off their wallets when the first foldable iPhone arrives.